Thursday, November 18, 2010

Big XII Breakdown


Parity might make an appearance this year in the Big XII, but not if the reigning champ Kansas Jayhawks have anything to say about it. This year should be a fight to the end where the league champ could finish with 3 to 4 loses. Here is how I think the conference will shape up this year.

1. Kansas State: After last year's Elite 8 run, Frank Martin has his team poised to go farther in this year's tournament. K-State will continue with what they did last year, play physical on both sides of the ball and come at you with a balanced offense that can bang away on the inside and drain the bomb from the outside. The Wildcats did lose a couple of key guys, Denis Clemente and Luis Colon, that will deplete some of there depth and didn't replace them with any top recruits. However they do return a solid core of Jacob Pullen (G), Curtis Kelly (F) and Jamar Samuels (F). K-State will need sophomore and former McDonald's All-American Wally Judge to live up to his hype if they expect to win the conference this year.
  

2. Texas:
The Longhorns should rebound well after they imploded underneath last year's expectations. After losing 4-Year Letterman Damion James and Freshman phenom Avery Bradley, Rick Barnes reloaded with two Top 20 recruits, forward Tristian Thompson (17 overall and 6 @ his position) and point-guard Cory Joseph (8 overall and 4 @ his position). However, in order for Texas to compete, Gary Johnson will need to fill the void James left, Dogus Balbay will need to cut down on the turnovers and sophomores Jordan Hamilton and J'Covan Brown will need to mature into leaders.
  

3. Kansas
I give KU this ranking under the assumption that Josh Selby will not be eligible. If he plays the Jayhawks are a clear-cut #1. Last years run away favorite is now this years biggest question mark. There is a giant void in leadership after Jayhawk great Sherron Collins graduate; look for Marcus Morris and Tyshawn Taylor to step up. Without Selby the Jayhawks will not be very deep in the backcourt. Tyshawn Taylor will need to revert back to his Team USA U-19 performances and Tyrel Reed and Brady Morningstar will need to start hitting clutch shots during conference play. Elijah Johnson is an athletic freak but he still struggles to crack to rotation. The biggest question mark will be KU's production from the #3 spot. Last year both Mario Little (former JUCO player of the year) and Travis Releford red-shirted to allow top 5 recruit Xavier Henry play, but now will the be able to produce? Moreover for Little, can he stay healthy? The Morris twins will be studs this year and expect Thomas Robinson to begin to make a name for himself in the Big XII. If Jeff Withey can get up to speed the Jayhawks will have the best and deepest frontcourt in the conference.


4. Baylor
Just like the Jayhawks, this ranking is based on the unavailability of LaceDarius Dunn. With Dunn, the Bears are probably the first or second best team, without him they are on the fringe of the top tier. Dunn's range will open up the post play, especially for Top 10 recruit power forward Perry Jones (9 overall and 3 @ his position). Baylor's starting 5 can go toe-to-toe with about anyone, but I question their depth. Get them winded or in foul trouble and that could spell trouble for the boys from Waco.



5. Mizzou
Where Mizzou lacks talent they make up with heart and grit. They may not always look pretty out on the floor, but their high octane game plan always proves to be problematic. The tigers lost leaders JT Tiller and Zaire Taylor. Mike Anderson brings in a talented recruiting class, but the jewel to be, Tony Mitchell is not enrolled yet due to eligibility issues.MU will need Kim English and Justin Safford will need to lead the way. Mizzou will beat the teams not ready for their pressing style, but the games they lose will be to teams with superior coaching and talent.


6. Texas A&M
Donald Sloan and Bryan Davis are gone and Mark Turgeon brought in a couple top 150 recruits. The Aggies don't have the talent to compete with the top teams in the conference but superior coaching will allow them to rack up wins against the bottom half of the conference. College Station is still a tough place to play and they will pick off a couple top 25 teams at home this year.



7. Oklahoma State
James Anderson will be tough to replace. Travis Ford has a Juco heavy recruiting class since the roster was experience depleted. The Pokes will still be able to play inside-out on offense with Marshall Moses banging in the paint and Keiton Page who can drain it from anywhere on the offensive side of the floor. Stop those two and the Cowboys don't stand much of a chance.

8. Texas Tech
The good thing for Raiders fans is that they are returning several core guys and the talent they lost is not irreplaceable. The bad thing is that the recruiting class is nothing special. Texas Tech looks like they will not have a deep bench if opponents wear them down over the course of the game or get them into foul trouble it could be a long night in Lubbock. Fortunately for the Tech the Big XII South will be down this year with the exception of Texas (and Baylor if they get Dunn back). If Pat Knight's team continues with this streak of mediocrity, I anticipate grumblings to come up for a new coach.




9. Iowa State
Iowa State will be a bit of an unknown. Talent wise they are clearly in the bottom half of the league especially after losing Craig Brackins and Marquis Gilstrap. However, Iowa State begins the 2010-2011 campaign with a new coach, Fed Hoiberg, after Greg McDermott realized he wasn't going to make it in the Big XII and bolted back to the MVC when the Creighton job became available. The Cyclones will be a .500 team at best and a sub .500 team in conference play.



10. Oklahoma
Jeff Capel who once appeared to be the next great young coach has hit a rough spot. After finishing 11th last year, look for OU to be about the same. The Sooners lost 4 starters which made up 72% of their scoring, 60% of their rebounds and 89% of their assist. In order to bridge the gap, their recruiting class was similar to OSU's, full of JUCO guys that hopefully can step in immediately. Cade Davis will need to be a superstar this year if OU does anything this year. Expect the Sooners to struggle again and don't be surprised if Jeff Capel's seat starts to heat up.


 11. Colorado
CU improved last year however coach Jeff Bzdelik left after last season to take the reigns at Wake Forest. My expectation is the Buffs will revert to form and be near the basement all season long. Even with that said, the fans still need to get out and check Alec Burks. The 6'6" sophomore from Grandview Missouri is projected to be a first round (if not a lottery pick) in next year's draft. Colorado fans usually don't have much to get excited about, but he will be worth the price of admission.


12. Nebraska
Husker basketball will probably accomplish one thing this year; give the people of Nebraska something to do between the Cornhusker's bowl game and spring practice. Doc Sadler's squad will play hard each night, however the disparity between their talent and the other team;s talent will be too much to overcome.






Big XII Player of the Year - Marcus Morris

Big XII Newcomer of the Year - Perry Jones

Big XII Coach of the Year - Scottt Drew

All Big XII team
G - Jacob Pullen
G - Alec Burks
F - Kim English
F - Marcus Morris
F - Curtis Kelly

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